Research Center Projects April 19th As Missouri’s Peak for COVID-19

by Michael Boyink / mike@douglascountyherald.com

According to its website, the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) “is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. ” 

Recently the group published a COVID-19 section to their website, including projections for when the virus will peak in different regions of the country.  

On April 5th, the IHME released some encouraging news.

“Updated COVID-19 estimates find that need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators needed to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic are less than previously estimated.   

“The revised forecasts reflect ‘a massive infusion of new data,’ said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. New data on COVID-19 health service use from multiple US states, including New York, Massachusetts, Georgia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, and California, has led to revisions down in estimated need to deal with the pandemic.   

“In addition, estimation of the likely peak of the epidemic in each state has been strengthened by epidemics peaking after social distancing in seven more locations internationally.  

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Murray said. “And these projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus.”  

Currently the estimated peak for COVID-19 in Missouri is April 19th. That’s a few weeks sooner than previous estimates of early to mid May. 

On that day, the data suggests that Missouri’s healthcare system would be able to handle the demands placed on it by the coronavirus, with 562 hospital beds needed and 7,933 available, 112 ICU beds needed with 558 available, and 95 ventilators required.

The report – which is updated as new data comes in – can be viewed online at: covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/missouri.